Skip navigation
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repository.iitr.ac.in/handle/123456789/9222
Title: Real-time flood stage forecasting by Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage hydrograph routing method
Authors: Perumal M.
Moramarco T.
Barbetta S.
Melone F.
Sahoo B.
Published in: Hydrology Research
Abstract: The application of a Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage (VPMS) hydrograph routing method for real-time flood forecasting at a river gauging site is demonstrated in this study. The forecast error is estimated using a two-parameter linear autoregressive model with its parameters updated at every routing time interval of 30 minutes at which the stage observations are made. This hydrometric data-based forecast model is applied for forecasting floods at the downstream end of a 15 km reach of the Tiber River in Central Italy. The study reveals that the proposed approach is able to provide reliable forecast of flood estimate for different lead times subject to a maximum lead time nearly equal to the travel time of the flood wave within the selected routing reach. Moreover, a comparative study of the VPMS method for real-time forecasting and the simple stage forecasting model (STAFOM), currently in operation as the Flood Forecasting and Warning System in the Upper-Middle Tiber River basin of Italy, demonstrates the capability of the VPMS model for its field use. © IWA Publishing 2011.
Citation: Hydrology Research (2011), 42(43892): 150-161
URI: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.063
http://repository.iitr.ac.in/handle/123456789/9222
Issue Date: 2011
Keywords: Compound channel
Flood
Hydrograph
Muskingum stage
Real-time forecasting variable parameter
ISSN: 291277
Author Scopus IDs: 6603838635
6602775672
12242652500
7003504885
16069856000
Author Affiliations: Perumal, M., Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee - 247 667, India
Moramarco, T., Research Institute for Geo-Hydrologlcal Protection, National Research Council, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Barbetta, S., Research Institute for Geo-Hydrologlcal Protection, National Research Council, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Melone, F., Research Institute for Geo-Hydrologlcal Protection, National Research Council, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Sahoo, B., Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region, Nagaland Centre, Jhamapani, Medziphema - 797 106, Nagaland, India, Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee 247 667, India
Corresponding Author: Perumal, M.; Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee - 247 667, India; email: p_erumal@yahoo.com
Appears in Collections:Journal Publications [HY]

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Show full item record


Items in Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.