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Title: Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves in Roorkee, India
Authors: Singh R.
Taxak A.K.
Vojinovic Z.
Arya, Dhyan Singh
Published in: Water Resources Management
Abstract: Intensification and frequency of hydrologic events are attributed to climate change and are expected to increase in coming future. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves quantify the extreme precipitation and are used extensively to assess the return periods of rainfall events. It is expected that climate change will modify the occurrence of extreme rainfall events. Thus a need of updating IDF curves arises under the climate change scenario. This paper aims at updating the IDF curves for a typical Indian town using an ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for all the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Sub-daily maximum intensities (15-, 30-, 45-, 60-, 120-, and 180 min) were obtained from the observed records. Equidistance quantile method was used to study the relationships between the historical and projected GCM data, and the historical GCM and observed sub-daily data. This relationship was used to obtain projected sub-daily intensities. The IDF curves were developed using observed and projected data. Analysis of the curves indicated increase in precipitation intensities for all the RCP scenarios. It was also found that intensities of all return periods increases with intensifying RCP scenarios. The variation in the intensities across the GCMs was attributed to the driving forces considered in a particular GCM. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Citation: Water Resources Management (2016), 30(13): 4603-4616
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Keywords: Climate change
Equidistant quantile matching
Extreme rainfall
Gumbel distribution
IDF curves
Statistical downscaling
ISSN: 9204741
Author Scopus IDs: 56599347200
Author Affiliations: Singh, R., Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India
Arya, D.S., Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India
Taxak, A.K., Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India
Vojinovic, Z., UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands
Corresponding Author: Arya, D.S.; Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology RoorkeeIndia; email:
Appears in Collections:Journal Publications [HY]

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