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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repository.iitr.ac.in/handle/123456789/9175
Title: Impact of climate change on rainfall in Northwestern Bangladesh using multi-GCM ensembles
Authors: Kumar D.
Arya, Dhyan Singh
Murumkar A.R.
Rahman M.M.
Published in: International Journal of Climatology
Abstract: Teesta River basin, located in the northwest of Bangladesh, is more vulnerable to floods if compared to other parts of the country. In this context, daily rainfall data of ten raingauge stations located in the catchment of the Jamuneswari River, part of the Teesta River basin, were analysed to study the impact of climate change on rainfall. Length of wet and dry series and mean monthly rainfalls along with their variances were used for validating Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The analysis was carried out for A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios using 15 Global Climate Models GCMs simulations for the periods 2011-2030 centred at 2020, 2046-2065 centred at 2055 and 2080-2099 centred at 2090. The analysis of the data shows that the uncertainty in the prediction increases with the timescale. It was also found that the variability in the predictions is smaller in annual values followed by seasonal. Ensemble of seasonal analysis shows that most of the GCM are in agreement for changes in monsoon season. The LARS-WG has reasonable skill to downscale the point rainfall data and the results obtained so are useful to analyse the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the basin. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.
Citation: International Journal of Climatology (2014), 34(5): 1395-1404
URI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3770
http://repository.iitr.ac.in/handle/123456789/9175
Issue Date: 2014
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
Keywords: Climate change
Ensemble
GCM
LARS-WG
Rainfall
Statistical downscaling
ISSN: 8998418
Author Scopus IDs: 55662698300
7004803272
55773662400
57212184289
Author Affiliations: Kumar, D., Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India
Arya, D.S., Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India
Murumkar, A.R., Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India
Rahman, M.M., Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India
Corresponding Author: Arya, D.S.; Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India; email: dsarya@gmail.com
Appears in Collections:Journal Publications [HY]

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