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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repository.iitr.ac.in/handle/123456789/9136
Title: Effect of climate change on runoff generation: Application to Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia
Authors: Wagesho N.
Jain M.K.
Goel N.K.
Published in: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Abstract: In this paper, an attempt has been made to investigate the potential impact of climate change on runoff generation at two agricultural watersheds. Climate change and key future signals of its variability were assessed using general circulation models (GCMs). Given that GCMs are operating at coarser resolution, the statistical downscaling model was applied to reduce large-scale atmospheric variables into localized weather variables from the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research-Bergen Climate Model 2.0 and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark (MK) 3.0 GCM outputs. As precipitation variables are composed of biases, both linear and power transformation bias correction methods were applied to obtain bias-corrected daily precipitation. Bias-corrected daily precipitation and temperature variables were used to simulate runoff for current and future climate scenarios using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The statistical downscaling model, followed by bias correction, effectively reproduced the current weather variables. Increased extreme daily precipitation and temperature events prevailed for future scenarios. Dry spell length increased during the driest months and remained stable during wet seasons. There was no defined future precipitation change pattern. At two watersheds in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin in Ethiopia, the simulated runoff varied from -4 to 18% and -4 and 14%, respectively. Simulated average annual runoff showed slight variation between the GCMs at both watersheds. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Citation: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (2013), 18(8): 1048-1063
URI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000647
http://repository.iitr.ac.in/handle/123456789/9136
Issue Date: 2013
Keywords: Bias correction
Climate change
Ethiopia
Runoff
Statistical downscaling method (SDSM)
ISSN: 10840699
Author Scopus IDs: 55207365200
55555537300
36190650800
Author Affiliations: Wagesho, N., Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering Dept, Arba Minch Univ., P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
Jain, M.K., Dept. of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee 247667, India
Goel, N.K., Dept. of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee 247667, India
Corresponding Author: Wagesho, N.; Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering Dept, Arba Minch Univ., P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch, Ethiopia; email: nwagesho@gmail.com
Appears in Collections:Journal Publications [HY]

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