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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repository.iitr.ac.in/handle/123456789/25818
Title: Flood analysis using negative binomial and Generalized Pareto models in partial duration series (PDS)
Authors: Bhunya P.K.
Berndtsson R.
Jain, Sharad Kumar
Kumar R.
Published in: Journal of Hydrology
Abstract: Two flood analysis estimation schemes, based on, respectively, partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum series (AMS), are compared. The PDS model assumes a Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution for modeling the flood exceedances above threshold corresponding to a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for annual maxima. As a generalization of the common assumption of the Poisson distribution (PD) to count the occurrences of peaks over threshold in the PDS models, the advantage of negative binomial (NB) distribution is explored in this study. The T-year event estimator for the annual maximum distribution corresponding to the parent PDS model is formulated for producing AMS samples consistent with PDS samples which are used in simulations. The performance of the two models in terms of the uncertainty of the T-year event estimator is evaluated in the cases of estimation with the method of probability weighted moments (PWM). In a similar way, the performance of the derived PDS/NB-GP model is compared with the existing PDS/PD-GP model in terms of uncertainty of T-year event estimator using simulation and field data. The results show the T-year event estimate using PDS/NB-GP model yields lower variance compared to PDS/PD-GP models for most cases. However both the models perform similarly at higher return periods more than 300years, using the ratios of the variance of T-years estimate as an index, and the ratio decreases with an increase in mean number of annual exceedances above threshold (μ). From the results it is observed that both AMS and PDS models yield the same variance when μ varies from 1.4 to 1.65. However, in case of NB distribution the PDS and AMS models gives the same variance of q(T) when variance (σ2) is 1.5 times the mean number of annual exceedance above threshold. The performance of the PDS models and the corresponding AMS models using the available data of Dee (at Cairnton) shows the PDS/NB-GP model to be marginally better at return periods lower than 50years. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.
Citation: Journal of Hydrology, 497: 121-132
URI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.047
http://repository.iitr.ac.in/handle/123456789/25818
Issue Date: 2013
Keywords: Annual maximum series
Flood exceedances above threshold
Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution
Negative binomial (NB) distribution
Partial duration series
ISSN: 221694
Author Scopus IDs: 8268278000
7005388716
29767443800
57198684874
Author Affiliations: Bhunya, P.K., National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247 667, India
Berndtsson, R., Dept. of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Lund SE-22100, Sweden
Jain, S.K., National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247 667, India
Kumar, R., National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247 667, India
Funding Details: 
Corresponding Author: Bhunya, P.K.; National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247 667, India; email: Pkb@nih.ernet.in
Appears in Collections:Journal Publications [CE]

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