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Title: Analysis and visualization of meteorological extremes in humid subtropical regions
Authors: Pandey B.K.
Khare, Deepak
Tiwari H.
Mishra P.K.
Published in: Natural Hazards
Abstract: Understanding the variability in extreme meteorological events due to climate change and anthropogenic activities is crucial to ensure sustainable development. In this paper, the variation in precipitation and temperature in the Upper Narmada Basin (UNB), a humid subtropical region of central India, during 1901–2002, was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test with the Sen’s slope (SS) estimator and innovative trend analysis (ITA). As a result, a significant negative trend in the annual precipitation occurred at two stations (12.5%) in the UNB, whereas no well-defined significant seasonal trends were detected. Moreover, in the annual mean temperature, a significant increasing trend occurred in the basin, with the highest and lowest rates of 0.470 °C/10 year and 0.287 °C/10 year, respectively. The seasonal temperature exhibited a significant increasing trend in the spring and autumn seasons. The trends in the extreme values were investigated using the ITA method. Furthermore, a quantitative study was carried out to measure the suitability of the ITA by comparing it with nonparametric methods (the MK test and SS estimator). The results endorse the reliability of the ITA method and show strong agreement between the trends and statistics of the parametric (ITA) and nonparametric approaches. To visualize the extreme events in meteorological series, a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was employed with the Daubechies (db3) mother wavelet. In addition, change points were detected using the sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) and cumulative sum (CUSUM) tests. Significant change points in the annual precipitation were detected at nine stations (56.25%) during 1955–1958, while only three stations (18.75%) exhibited the annual mean temperature during 1960. The findings of this study could provide support to understand the variability in the meteorological trend over the basin and can help with water resource planning in future development. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
Citation: Natural Hazards, 108(1): 661-687
Issue Date: 2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Keywords: Discrete wavelet transform
Innovative trend analysis
ISSN: 0921030X
Author Scopus IDs: 57195571125
Author Affiliations: Pandey, B.K., Department of Civil Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology & Science Pilani - Dubai Campus, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Khare, D., Department of Water Resources Development & Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India
Tiwari, H., Floodkon Consultants LLP, Delhi, India
Mishra, P.K., Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India
Funding Details: The authors would like to acknowledge the Indian Water Portal (IWP) for providing the archive of hydrometeorological data for the region. The authors appreciate the unknown reviewers for their thoughtful and profound comments.
Corresponding Author: Pandey, B.K.; Department of Civil Engineering, United Arab Emirates; email:
Appears in Collections:Journal Publications [WR]

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