A Framework for Assessing the Viability of Solar PV in Province-2 of Nepal Using System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

Province-2 of Nepal is the only province with zero power generation, and so 100% power required is imported either from other provinces or through cross-border transmission line from India. With no prominent source of electricity, solar PV is seen as a major source to fulfil provincial energy needs; hence, the provincial government has set a target of generating 300 MW of solar power. Provincial demand is also expected to increase due to attractive investment policies for the industrial sector. Major technological advancements in solar PV technology have caused rapid fall in prices over the last few years. It would be interesting to analyse the dynamics of PV targets with variations in demand profile, grid capacity, PPA rates, power sector policies and other contributing factors. This paper presents a conceptual framework for analysing the viability of solar PV in Province-2 of Nepal using system dynamics approach. Systems model for PV generation in Province-2 has been classified into four sub-systems, 1. Demand, 2. National power generation, 3. Solar PV installed capacity in Province-2, and 4. Investment. Forty-five parameters have been identified across these four sub-systems which influence solar PV generation in Province-2. Their interlinkages have been represented in the integrated causal-loop diagram. The causal-loop diagram can be converted into stock and flow diagram to depict the behaviour of the system. The simulation model could be used for sensitivity analysis for identifying the crucial factors as well as for suggesting necessary policy interventions. © 2021, Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.