Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India

Abstract

Climate change is a serious issue resulting in global variation in the temperature and precipitation pattern. In this study, changes in rainfall trend in India for 141 years (1871–2011) and temperature trend for 107 years (1901–2007) were analysed. The annual, seasonal and monthly changes in different regions of India were investigated to see the climate change in different parts of the country, and the net excess or deficit of rainfall and temperature in India was obtained. Statistical non-parametric tests were performed to see the trend magnitude with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope. Mann-Whitney-Pettitt (MWP) test was used for probable break point detection in the series, and change percentage was calculated over 30 sub-divisions and 7 broad regions. The results indicate decreasing annual and monsoon rainfall of India in most of the sub-divisions, and temperature fluctuations were observed in all the places. Temperatures (minimum, maximum and mean) were showing a significant increase, particularly in the winter and post-monsoon time. Wide variation was noticed all over India in the case of the minimum temperature. Variation was also observed at different spatial scales of sub-divisions and regions. This study gives the net impact of climate change in India which shows net excess of temperature and net deficit of rainfall. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Wien.